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May 13, 2025—Disaster is looming at the National Weather Service. Plus, "black hole bombs" and the emotional impact of chatbot companions. —Andrea Gawrylewski, Chief Newsletter Editor | | An artist's rendition of a black hole surrounded by a glowing accretion disc of material. Mark Garlick/Science Photo Library/Getty Images | | NOAA Hurricane Hunters (L-R) Lt. Cmdr. Chris Wood, Flight Engineer Rusty Dittoe, and Hurricane Aircraft Commander Adam Arbitbol flies towards Tropical Storm Debby on Aug. 3, 2024. Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire/Alamy Stock Photo | | Because of federal budget and staffing cuts, the National Weather Service's 122 field offices across the country have dropped to a 19 percent vacancy rate. Fifty-two offices are now considered "critically understaffed," meaning a personnel shortage of more than 20 percent. Some branches are down by more than 40 percent. The service has had to reduce or cancel weather balloon launches. Such launches, which are supposed to happen twice a day at every weather forecast office across the country, give researchers a snapshot of the atmosphere and data that is fed into weather models that yield the most accurate weather forecasts possible. In February, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which oversees the NWS, fired two directors of the Hurricane Hunters—members of the crew that flies aircraft, crammed with state-of-the-art equipment, into the middle of tropical storms and hurricanes to gather data. Research has shown that including these data clearly makes hurricane forecasts more accurate and reliable. | | The map shows where weather balloon launches continued as normal (black), have been curtailed (orange) or have been suspended entirely (red).Chris Vagasky, created with OpenStreetMap data (CC BY 2.0) | | Why this matters: With one third of the U.S. economy—from farming to trucking to tourism—being sensitive to weather and climate, the NWS provides an overall benefit of $100 billion to the economy. This is roughly 10 times what the service costs to run (it costs the average American about $4 per year). Recent improvements to hurricane forecasts alone have saved up to $5 billion for each hurricane that hit the U.S. since 2007, according to a report by the National Bureau of Economic Research—a nonpartisan, nonprofit economic research organization. NWS also issues specific aviation, shipping and space weather forecasts, all at risk of being downgraded because of cuts. "Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life," wrote five former NWS directors from both Democratic and Republican administrations in an open letter on May 2. What the experts say: Without robust NOAA data collection, "the Weather Channel, Accuweather ... will be unable to function as they have," says Rick Spinrad, who served as NOAA administrator from 2021 to 2025. "In an era of climate change causing increased extreme weather, we should be spending more on NOAA and the National Weather Service, not less," says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. "This is a very poor way to spend our tax dollars." —Andrea Thompson, senior editor, sustainability | | | | |
- Parents of children with chronic illnesses face profound emotional and logistical challenges, writes Beth S. Russell, a psychologist and researcher at the University of Connecticut. When a life-altering diagnosis comes in, many feel overwhelmed not just by medical demands but by the everyday pressure of caregiving and the uncertainty of their child's future. "It is too steep an expectation to think parents can do it all for themselves, at least not all the time—and it sets them up to feel pressure, guilt and shame," Russell explains. "When we find ourselves on the edge of being overwhelmed, it's time to reach for more than the familiar set of one or two relaxation activities we know work; it's time to reach deeper into the coping toolbox." She encourages parents to build skills in flexibility, find everyday joy, and lean into community—ideally before a crisis hits—so they have practical and emotional supports in place when things get hard. | 5 min read
| | The National Weather Service does so much more than help you pick your daily outfit. It is the backbone of weather disaster response, yes, but also the data it gathers in conjunction with other NOAA services form the heart of planning and routing for commercial aviation routes around the globe. We will be covering this in depth in the coming weeks, so stay tuned. | | —Andrea Gawrylewski, Chief Newsletter Editor | | | | |
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